2011 Outlook: U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 11:29 am
Fitch released their '2011 Outlook: U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance' report yesterday and had a conference call this morning (which I missed
) but even though I am registered on their site, I can't get the sucker to download. Anyone know where else we can get it? For the curious, the Fitch press release is below;
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December 07, 2010 02:50 PM Eastern Time
Fitch: U.S. P&C Insurer Outlook Stable in 2011 despite Tepid Market Conditions CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: 2011 Outlook: U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/ ... _id=583005
Prospects for the U.S. property/casualty insurance (P&C) market are unlikely to improve in 2011 as competitive fundamentals continue to promote inadequate pricing, according to Fitch Ratings in a new report. Signs of a meaningful shift in market underwriting capacity are not apparent.
Fitch revised its Rating Outlook on both the personal lines and commercial lines insurance sectors to Stable in September 2010. The Stable outlook is based on the industry's strong capital position and expectations that market pricing conditions are unlikely to improve in the near term, while not reverting to the extreme under-pricing experienced at the beginning of the decade. An Outlook revision to Negative is more likely in the commercial lines sector versus personal lines given the diverging market conditions for those two segments.
The forecast for 2011 includes only slight premium growth for the industry amidst a continuing moderate economic recovery. The combined ratio is expected to rise to approximately 103.6% from an anticipated 101.5% in 2010. Net income and return on surplus is projected to be lower in 2011 versus the last two years, in line with Fitch's view that returns on capital will be mired at mid single digit levels for the next several years.
Profitability will continue to be hindered by current accident year underwriting losses, low investment yields, and below historical average asset and operating leverage. Reported calendar year profits going forward will also benefit less from favorable prior year loss reserve development.
Given the P&C industry's historical volatility and current position in the market underwriting cycle, Fitch views an Outlook revision to Positive for the industry as unlikely.
The full report '2011 Outlook: U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance' is available on the Fitch web site at 'www.fitchratings.com.' The report further discusses Fitch's rationale for its Rating Outlook for the U.S. P&C insurance industry, assesses the key risk factors that will affect industry performance in the coming year and provides Fitch's forecast for 2011 industry financial results.
In connection with the publication of this report, Fitch will host a teleconference on Wednesday, Dec. 8, 2010 at 11 a.m. ET. There will be a Q&A session following the analysts opening remarks and participants may submit questions in advance of the call by sending an e-mail to 'james.auden@fitchratings.com'.
Call Information:
--Date & Time: Wed., December 8, 2010 at 11 a.m. ET
--Dial-In: +1-877-233-9813 (North America) or +1-706-679- 8437 (International)
--Conference ID: #29960943
--Call Leader: James Auden
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'
ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE.
![Crying or Very sad :cry:](./images/smilies/icon_cry.gif)
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December 07, 2010 02:50 PM Eastern Time
Fitch: U.S. P&C Insurer Outlook Stable in 2011 despite Tepid Market Conditions CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: 2011 Outlook: U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/ ... _id=583005
Prospects for the U.S. property/casualty insurance (P&C) market are unlikely to improve in 2011 as competitive fundamentals continue to promote inadequate pricing, according to Fitch Ratings in a new report. Signs of a meaningful shift in market underwriting capacity are not apparent.
Fitch revised its Rating Outlook on both the personal lines and commercial lines insurance sectors to Stable in September 2010. The Stable outlook is based on the industry's strong capital position and expectations that market pricing conditions are unlikely to improve in the near term, while not reverting to the extreme under-pricing experienced at the beginning of the decade. An Outlook revision to Negative is more likely in the commercial lines sector versus personal lines given the diverging market conditions for those two segments.
The forecast for 2011 includes only slight premium growth for the industry amidst a continuing moderate economic recovery. The combined ratio is expected to rise to approximately 103.6% from an anticipated 101.5% in 2010. Net income and return on surplus is projected to be lower in 2011 versus the last two years, in line with Fitch's view that returns on capital will be mired at mid single digit levels for the next several years.
Profitability will continue to be hindered by current accident year underwriting losses, low investment yields, and below historical average asset and operating leverage. Reported calendar year profits going forward will also benefit less from favorable prior year loss reserve development.
Given the P&C industry's historical volatility and current position in the market underwriting cycle, Fitch views an Outlook revision to Positive for the industry as unlikely.
The full report '2011 Outlook: U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance' is available on the Fitch web site at 'www.fitchratings.com.' The report further discusses Fitch's rationale for its Rating Outlook for the U.S. P&C insurance industry, assesses the key risk factors that will affect industry performance in the coming year and provides Fitch's forecast for 2011 industry financial results.
In connection with the publication of this report, Fitch will host a teleconference on Wednesday, Dec. 8, 2010 at 11 a.m. ET. There will be a Q&A session following the analysts opening remarks and participants may submit questions in advance of the call by sending an e-mail to 'james.auden@fitchratings.com'.
Call Information:
--Date & Time: Wed., December 8, 2010 at 11 a.m. ET
--Dial-In: +1-877-233-9813 (North America) or +1-706-679- 8437 (International)
--Conference ID: #29960943
--Call Leader: James Auden
Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'
ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE.