Northeast warned ‘historic’ weather disaster could hit this year

The northeast U.S. coast is “long overdue” and could be the target of a serious hurricane, perhaps as early as this season, according to forecasters.

Weather experts at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center say this year could bring the Northeast a storm like the 1938 hurricane that killed 600 people and resulted in more than $306 million in damage then. In today’s dollars that would mean nearly $6 billion in damage.

In terms of number of storms, the 2006 hurricane season will again be more active than normal, but less active than last summer’s historic season, the forecasters said.

“The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun,” said Joe Bastardi, chief forecaster for AccuWeather. “The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we’re seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when.”

Weather cycles
AccuWeather meteorologists say they have identified weather cycles that indicate which U.S. coastal areas are most susceptible to landfalls. “If you examine past weather cycles that have occurred in the Atlantic, you will see patterns of storms,” maintained Ken Reeves. “There are indications that the Northeast will experience a hurricane larger and more powerful than anything that region has seen in a long time.”

He said that the current cycle and above-normal water temperatures are reminiscent of the pattern that eventually produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, R.I. That storm killed 600 people in New England and Long Island. It was the Northeast’s strongest tropical system in history.

Forecasters say that today’s patterns are similar to those of the 1930s, 40s and 50s when storms such as the 1938 hurricane, the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricanes and the Trio of 1954–Carol, Edna and Hazel–hit from the Carolinas to New England.

Because coastal areas are much more developed today, a storm similar to that of 1938 would result in substantially higher damage. The storm that struck Providence on Sept. 21, 1938, first made landfall in Westhampton, Long Island before ripping across the island and continuing north to Rhode Island. It created the Shinnecock Inlet, and has since been known as “the Long Island Express.”