Flu hope, not hype

Does the world seem to be careening from one crisis to another these days or is it all hype by news outlets?

Unfortunately, it’s not hype; it’s the real world. Not a day goes by without reports of terrorist threats and attacks somewhere around the globe. The AIDS epidemic seems to be worsening in certain parts of the world. Hurricane victims, the entire city of New Orleans and communities along the Gulf Coast are still struggling to put their lives back together, as are those who managed to survive the Indian Ocean tsunami a year ago and the giant earthquake in Pakistan and Kashmir just two months ago.

And now the world is being warned of yet another potential crisis. A few weeks ago, the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advised that avian flu is just “one step away” from being a pandemic. Speaking at an event sponsored by broker Marsh and its affiliates Kroll and Mercer, Dr. Toby Merlin of the CDC laid out the bare facts. Of the 135 known human cases, the mortality rate is 50 percent. “It is quite lethal as we see it now,” he said.

Last month, broker Aon produced a white paper on the risks posed by such a pandemic. It reminds us of World Health Organization predictions that 25 percent of the workforce would be debilitated at any one time should a pandemic occur.

There is not a human influenza pandemic at this time, nor can it be said for sure that one is imminent. However, the new strain of influenza virus (H5N1) found in birds in Asia can infect humans. If the virus mutates in certain ways, it is possible that it could lead to a pandemic.

Because this threat does exist, it is important for businesses to be knowledgeable about the risks associated with the threat and, in turn, to be adequately prepared for the possibility of a pandemic that would have significant social and economic costs.

As with any of the risks that our country faces, including natural disasters and the ongoing possibility another terrorist attack, all segments of society must be prepared. President Bush, the CDC, the Departments of Commerce, Health and Human Services, and Homeland Security are calling upon businesses to focus on the need for planning within their own organizations for the possibility of an influenza pandemic.

President Bush has released the Administration’s National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza. The government strategy includes the establishment of a new international partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza, the stockpiling of vaccines and antiviral medications, expansion of early-warning systems here and abroad, and new initiatives for local and state level preparedness against the threat of a pandemic.

In order to ensure maximum preparedness, businesses should develop specific plans to protect their employees and maintain operations during a pandemic. Companies that provide critical infrastructure services, such as power and telecommunications, also have a special responsibility to plan for continued operation in a crisis and should plan accordingly. As with any catastrophe, having a contingency plan is essential.

The CDC has developed materials including a checklist to assist in the planning for a pandemic outbreak. For more information, visit pandemicflu.gov.

The criticisms that the flu warnings are mere hype are themselves the worst kind of hype because they erode hope. While preparing, substitute hope for hype and keep praying that the pandemic crisis checklist is never needed.