Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

It’s that time of the year again. The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season officially got underway on June 1.

So far, forecasters are saying this will be a less-active-than-usual North Atlantic hurricane season. And insurers and reinsurers are keeping their fingers crossed, hoping that the weather experts are right.

“National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook predicts a less active season compared to recent years,” said Jane Lubchenco, administrator at the NOAA.

The NOAA is currently predicting nine to 15 tropical storms, with four to eight of them strengthening into hurricanes. Up to three of these hurricanes could grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher, the agency stated on May 24.

The agency observed there are two factors now in place that can limit storm development. They are: strong wind shear, which is hostile to hurricane formation in the Main Development Region, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic.

Two commercial forecasting companies are also predicting a quieter-than-usual season. The Weather Channel is forecasting 11 named storms, with six hurricanes (with two of them classified as a Category 3 or higher). AccuWeather is expecting a dozen named storms, with five named hurricanes (with two becoming major hurricanes).

But regardless of the outlook, it’s vital for anyone living or vacationing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared, NOAA cautioned. “We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew,” said NOAA’s Lubchenco. Andrew, the Category 5 hurricane that devastated South Florida on August 24, 1992, was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms.

Further, the agency explained that the seasonal outlook does not predict how many storms will hit land. And our industry knows all too well that it only takes one hurricane or storm to cause a major event.

In a separate forecast, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorlogy Project also predicted a less active hurricane season this year. They are forecasting around four hurricanes and 10 named storms, both below the median.

“We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology,” they predicted. “The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high.”

The professors were also quick to remind us that for coastal residents, “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

As these experts say, it’s best to be prepared — and hope for the best.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane