The Storms Will be Out There: Average Hurricane Season Predicted

Colorado State University hurricane forecasters, led by Dr. William Gray, recently lowered this year’s Atlantic basin hurricane forecast numbers, but that hasn’t prevented insurance commissioners from states bordering the Gulf of Mexico from issuing advisories to consumers and businesses to make sure they are prepared, insurance-wise, for the storm season.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30. In a report released May 31, Gray and his colleagues updated their predictions for the 2002 season, which call for 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The forecast reduces the group’s April estimate of 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The average per year is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.

In Texas, Commissioner Jose Montemayor warned coastal residents and business owners not to become complacent about potential hurricane damage, even though no major hurricane has crossed the state’s coastline since 1999 when Hurricane Bret swept through Kenedy County. Although Bret packed 120 mile per hour winds, damage was minimal as it landed in a largely uninhabited area.

Montemayor reminded citizens that a tropical storm doesn’t have to attain hurricane status in order to become both deadly and devastating, as residents of the Houston and the surrounding area found out last year when Tropical Storm Allison blew in and stayed for several days in June. Twenty-three people lost their lives as the result of that storm, which also caused $2.5 billion worth of damage.

“While no hurricane has hit a populated area of Texas in more than a decade, we’re still feeling the effects of Tropical Storm Allison,” Montemayor said. “Allison should be proof that anyone living in or near a flood prone area should have flood insurance.”

Louisiana Acting Insurance Commissioner J. Robert Wooley issued a similar warning to the citizens of his state. “When the storm warnings are issued, that’s when it’s too late to buy flood and other property insurance,” Wooley stated. He added that many companies halt the sale of property insurance in areas along the coast once a hurricane or tropical storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, and all flood insurance has a waiting period.

“Even if you don’t live along the coast, there’s still a 30-day period before any flood insurance policy becomes effective. So if you’re considering buying flood insurance or other insurance to cover possible property damage, you need to do so quickly,” Wooley maintained.

Wooley advised homeowners and businesses in Louisiana who have difficulty obtaining private property insurance coverage to check out the FAIR and Coastal Plans, programs set up by the Legislature to sell insurance to property owners who have trouble getting coverage elsewhere.

He noted that many homeowners do not realize that most homeowners policies do not cover flooding and urged consumers to check their policies for coverage limitations. Wooley added that federal flood insurance can be purchased from insurance agents who have made special arrangements with the Federal Insurance Administration, or it can be purchased directly from the National Flood Insurance Program.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which caused over $40 billion in insured damages to Florida and Louisiana in 1992, according to Wooley. In Florida, Insurance Commissioner Tom Gallagher used the anniversary as an opportunity to remind residents and business owners that “Being prepared can save lives, property and a lot of heartache.”

Inhibiting factors
Although cooler than expected April and May Atlantic sea surface temperatures led to decreased forecast numbers, Gray and his colleagues at Colorado State continue to predict an average Atlantic 2002 hurricane storm season.

“We still anticipate this year’s hurricane season to be reasonably active,” Gray said in a statement. “We lowered our April forecast by one named storm, one hurricane and one major hurricane primarily because Atlantic surface temperatures have become cooler than expected over the past few months. We foresee activity to be typical of the average hurricane seasons between 1950-2001, but the probability of United States hurricane landfall will be above average.”

Another inhibiting factor to this year’s Atlantic storm activity is a weak El Niño event in the eastern equatorial Pacific. According to the forecasters, however, it is not expected to impact Atlantic storm activity as greatly as it did in the reduced hurricane seasons of 1997, 1986-87 and 1982-83.

The Colorado State team also lowered their estimates of the probabilities of hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. Nevertheless, Gray warned that landfall probabilities remain higher than the long-term average due to the current multi-decadal era for more active hurricane activity that began in 1995.

The probability of one or more major hurricanes hitting somewhere along the nation’s coastline in 2002 is 63 percent, the team noted. The East Coast and Florida Peninsula have 42 percent probability of one or more major hurricanes making landfall there, and the probability is 35 percent for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The average probability for the last century was 52 percent.

Over the past seven years only three major hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. And within the last two-and-a-half years 19 consecutive Atlantic basin hurricanes have come within the observation distance of the U.S. without one crossing the U.S. coastline, a record for consecutive Atlantic basin hurricanes not making landfall. Additionally, over the past three-and-a-half decades, the nation has seen an overall decrease in major hurricane landfalls, which Gray attributes to a rare combination of multi-decadal global ocean circulation changes. The downward cycle is not expected to continue.

“The storms have been out there, but they have just not come ashore,” Gray stated. “Climatological averages will eventually correct themselves, and when that happens, we will see a significant increase in the number of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States.”

Although major hurricanes make up about a quarter of all named storms, they cause about 85 percent of all damage spawned by tropical cyclones when accounting for population, inflation and wealth per capita.

Topics Florida Catastrophe USA Natural Disasters Windstorm Flood Louisiana Hurricane Property Mexico Colorado