Experts predict devastating Arizona wildfire season ahead

Dry conditions this year and heavy moisture last year could combine to make Arizona’s imminent wildfire season the most devastating yet, experts told Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano at a roundtable discussion. Wildland fire experts expect them to occur in both high and low climates this year.

“It could be the worst of last year with the worst of previous years combined,” said state forester Kirk Rowdabaugh. “We’ve never had a situation where it’s bad in the low elevations and bad in the high elevations … We’ve got the worst of both worlds.”

Very little moisture in the state this year has dried out vegetation in the north, leaving millions of acres of pine trees already weak from a decade of drought and bark beetle infestation tinder dry.

Such was the situation in summer 2002, the most destructive in the state’s history. That year, the Rodeo-Chediski fire destroyed hundreds of homes and scorched 469,000 acres.

Last year, the conditions reversed. Heavy rainfall caused an unusual amount of vegetation in desert areas that eventually dried out. That vegetation left enough fuel for another large desert fire this year, according to Rowdabaugh.

Arizonans can expect the wildfire season to begin in March – two months earlier than normal, Rowdabaugh said. He predicted above-normal temperatures and little moisture until July, usually the start of the monsoon season.

Napolitano said officials have to be prepared for the worst.

“Communicating and planning are key,” she said. “Public awareness is key. We are facing a situation that historically, even experts in fire haven’t seen. We have to be at the top of our game.”

In January, Napolitano asked federal officials to ensure that wildland firefighting and prevention resources remain in place and are not reduced.

The U.S. Department of Interior and the U.S. Department of Agriculture said resources “are sufficient to maintain the level of effectiveness on initial attack achieved in recent years.”

Lou Trammel, deputy director of the Arizona Division of Emergency Management said better communication equipment and increased firefighter training will help the state combat wildfires this year.

But Rowdabaugh said he’s worried the wildfire seasons in Texas and Oklahoma, which typically are over by now, could take resources that would otherwise be dedicated to Arizona.

An early fire season also could mean earlier closures in national forests, said Tom Klabunde, deputy forest supervisor of the Tonto National Forest. “Closures are a tool we sometimes employ to prevent fires. That’s when conditions get so severe, we’re concerned about initial attack and the risk to public safety and private property,” he said.

Considering 60 percent of the state’s wildfires are caused by humans, taking visitors out of state lands could reduce the risk of fires, Rowdabaugh said.

“Our worst fires have been started by people,” he said. “People are really the only part of this situation we have a hope of controlling.”

Copyright 2006 Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Wildfire Arizona