Hurricane forecasters agree: busy season ahead

Weather forecasters differ somewhat in their methodologies and numbers but appear to agree on one matter: the 2007 hurricane season looks to be a busy one along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

They predict that anywhere from seven to 10 hurricanes will form and at least one major Category 3 or higher storm will make landfall in these U.S. coastal regions.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with peak activity occurring August through October.

Experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center say there is a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal this year.

NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher, according to retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes. Last year, seasonal hurricane predictions proved to be too high when an unexpected El Nino rapidly developed and created a hostile environment for Atlantic storms to form and strengthen.

Some uncertainty

“There is some uncertainty this year as to whether or not La Nina will form, and if it does how strong it will be,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. If La Nina develops, storm activity will likely be in the upper end of the predicted range, he added.

It’s not just the Atlantic Coast being warned. The up-and-coming hurricane researchers who accurately predicted a mild 2006 storm season, despite dire predictions of more established forecasters, also say the 2007 season will be much more active — especially in the Gulf of Mexico.

Two teams of researchers at North Carolina State University this season released separate results for the first time.

One team projected that 16 to 17 named storms would form in the Atlantic basin, including eight to nine hurricanes. Two or three hurricanes will make landfall on the East Coast, while one or two will strike the Gulf Coast, according to team predictions.

“Everything shows that it’s going to be a much busier year than last year,” said Len Pietrafesa, a professor of oceanic and atmospheric science at N.C. State who contributed to the team.

The second squad of N.C. State forecasters estimated the Atlantic basin will brew 12 to 13 named storms and eight to nine hurricanes, including four or five major hurricanes. These researchers said there is a 75 percent chance a hurricane will make landfall along the eastern seaboard and an equally strong chance that a hurricane will hit the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

“All in all, it’s going to be an active year,” agreed lead researcher Lian Xie, an N.C. State professor of meteorology and physical oceanography.

This team also estimated a 56 percent chance that a major hurricane will strike the Gulf Coast, and a 10 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the southeast coast.

“We’re seeing a very active Gulf of Mexico, similar to some of the past active seasons,” Xie said, adding that the eastern seaboard will have above-average activity in the south and a calm season in the north.

Last year’s forecast

Colorado State University’s William Gray, considered the nation’s most reliable forecaster over the past 24 years, had estimated last season would produce nine hurricanes, but he later revised his projections downward.

This year, Gray and his fellow researcher Philip J. Klotzbac, have predicted a total of 17 named storms including at least nine hurricanes, five of them major. They project a 74 percent probability that at least one major (Category 3,4 or 5) hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast. The probability is 50 percent that one will hit the East Coast including the Florida Peninsula and 49 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, according to the Colorado team.

The National Hurricane Center was to issue its forecast for the 2007 season in late May.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Hurricane Mexico