Dramatic growth in assisted living and home care may increase professional and general liability risks..
Florida faces a crisis in meeting the demand for aging services over the next 22 years as the population aged 85 and older is forecast to grow by 126 percent. This will require 15,000 more skilled nursing beds at a time when there is expected to be a severe shortage of nurses, according to a study of the state’s future aging service needs.
In addition, dramatic growth in home care and assisted living, as a substitute for care in skilled nursing facilities, may increase professional and general liability risks that will create a need for increased liability insurance in an uncertain market, the study found.
The study, Mapping the Future – Estimating Florida Aging Services Needs 2008 to 2030, was conducted by the research firm, LarsonAllen, for Ponce de Leon LTC RRG, Inc., a liability insurer for long-term care facilities in Florida.
“The challenges facing the state of Florida in planning and providing for the needs of those aged 65 and older are daunting,” said Nancy Rehkamp, principal in LarsonAllen. “Florida must grapple with these changes sooner and with greater speed at a time when the economic outlook is less optimistic.”
“As the number of seniors choosing home healthcare or assisted living grows, skilled nursing facilities will experience shorter stays and be exposed to more risks that require liability coverage,” said Sanford “Sandy” Elsass, president, Ponce de Leon Risk Retention Group, the study sponsor.
Elsass said risk retention groups likehis that are owned by facilities and professional healthcare workers, could help provide a stable market to fill this need.
The study identifies other factors likely to challenge providers of long-term care:
Reduced hospital use rates will be offset by aging population growth, resulting in the need for some 15,000 more nursing home beds over the next 22 years.
Availability of home-care givers, including family and other informal providers, is expected to decline 41 percent by 2030, leaving 420,000 more seniors 85 years and older at risk of requiring assisted living or other services.
A shortage in nurses may mean that more care will have to be provided in institutional settings where the limited number of trained staff can be deployed more efficiently.
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