Madrid Zone Earthquake Study a Wake-Up Call for Tennessee, Other States

A new federal study of the New Madrid Seismic Zone predicts Tennessee would see the highest level of damage if there is a 7.7 magnitude earthquake.

The study notes that the total economic impact of a series of NMSZ earthquakes is likely to constitute the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the country.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency released the two-year study. Besides Tennessee, the seismic zone includes areas of Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi and Missouri.

The report included state-specific scenarios such as damage levels to buildings, highway bridges, electric power, drinkable water, waste water, communications facilities and pipelines.

In Tennessee, the results show 250,000 buildings would be moderately or more severely damaged, over 260,000 people would be displaced and well over 60,000 casualties would be expected.

In Arkansas, the report estimates such an earthquake would kill 574 people, injure 13,403 and cause about $19 billion in damages.

Missouri would incur substantial damage and loss, though estimates are less than those in Tennessee. More than 80,000 buildings would be damaged, leaving more than 120,000 people displaced and causing over 15,000 casualties. Total direct economic losses in Missouri would reach nearly $40 billion.

Kentucky and Illinois would incur significant losses with total direct economic losses reaching approximately $45 and $35 billion, respectively, Arkansas would suffer nearly $19 billion in direct economic loss, while Mississippi would incurs $9.5 billion in direct economic losses.

Indiana and Alabama would see limited damage and loss with approximately $1.5 and $1.0 billion, respectively.

According to the study, areas within the New Madrid Seismic Zone would experience widespread and catastrophic physical damage, negative social impacts, and economic losses. Three different earthquakes were considered, one for each segment of the New Madrid Fault — northeast, central and southwest. For example, an earthquake that occurs in the southwestern part would cause significant damage in northeast Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, western Tennessee and portions of western Kentucky, and is likely to damage the greatest number of homes and affect the greatest number of people.

Web Resource
The Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) Center report entitled Impact of Earthquakes on the Central USA can be found at: http://mae.ce.uiuc.edu/news/reportusa.html.

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Mississippi Tennessee Kentucky Missouri Earthquake Arkansas