Researchers in Oklahoma Developing Seasonal Tornado Forecasts

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Weather researchers in Oklahoma are working on a method to develop seasonal tornado forecasts that could predict the likelihood of the severe storms weeks in advance.

Harold Brooks, senior research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, says scientists could be a few years away from being able to release seasonal forecasts for tornadoes.

Rather than predicting individual outbreaks, Brooks said the forecasts would predict how likely tornadoes were over the course of a few weeks or an entire season.

“The important experiments have been done,” Brooks said.

The National Weather Service has published seasonal forecasts for other weather phenomena, including hurricanes. Brooks says that unlike hurricanes, the factors that determine whether tornadoes are likely tend to move quickly, making long-term forecasts for tornadoes more difficult.

More recently, researchers have looked at how seasonal temperatures and other trends like El Nino and La Nina weather patterns affect tornadoes, Brooks said. A better understanding of the interaction between those patterns and tornado outbreaks could allow forecasters to make long-term tornado forecasts, he said.

Earlier this year, a group of researchers at Columbia University released an experimental seasonal tornado forecast. That forecast could serve as a prototype for what an official forecast might look like in the future, Brooks said.

Seasonal tornado forecasts could help emergency managers prepare well in advance for periods when tornadoes are more likely, Brooks said. For example, if forecasters predict that tornadoes are likely during a two-week period in April, emergency managers could have more time to get equipment and other resources into place, he said.

Advanced warning could also give emergency managers an opportunity to remind residents about tornado safety, Brooks said. Even if tornadoes don’t develop, that’s a good message for residents to hear, especially during tornado season, he said.