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AccuWeather, NOAA warn of active hurricane season

The AccuWeather.com Hur-ricane Center in State College, Pa., led by Chief Forecaster Joe Bastardi, in its 2006 hurricane season forecast predicted an active hurricane season that could have major repercussions for the U.S. economy and the one in six Americans who live on the Eastern Seaboard or along the western Gulf of Mexico.

For the 2006 Hurricane Sea-son—June 1 through Nov. 30—Bastardi and his team are forecasting that six tropical cyclones will make landfall in the U.S. Five of these land-falling storms are likely to be hurricanes, with three being major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

“The 2006 season will be a creeping threat,” Bastardi said. “Early in the season—June and July—the Texas Gulf Coast faces the highest likelihood of a hurricane strike, possibly putting Gulf energy production in the line of fire. As early as July, and through much of the rest of the season, the highest level of risk shifts to the Carolinas. From mid-August into early October, the window is open for hurricane strikes to spread northward to the more densely populated Northeast coast. At the very end of the season, southern Florida also faces significant hurricane risk.”

Meanwhile, the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2006 Atlantic hurricane season outlook released May 22 by the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts 13 to 16 named storms, eight to 10 hurricanes and four to six major hurricanes.

NOAA’s report calls for an 80 percent chance for an above-normal hurricane season, a 15 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.

“There are few areas of the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico that will not be in the bull’s eye at some point this season,” said Ken Reeves, AccuWeather’s Director of Forecast Opera-tions. Ironically, though, the region that was hammered the hardest last year—the central and eastern Gulf Coast—has one of the lower probabilities of receiving another major hurricane strike in 2006.”

Added Reeves, “This is not to say that hard-hit New Orleans has nothing to worry about. Because the city’s defenses have been so compromised by Hurricane Katrina, even a glancing blow from a hurricane elsewhere could spell trouble for the city.”

Comparing 2006 with 2005

Following 2005’s record-shattering hurricane season, 2006 will feature fewer storms, but will still see above-average storm frequency. “There were 28 named storms last year, and we are expecting far fewer storms during this season,” Reeves said, adding, “It is where they make landfall that sets the tone for the season.”

NOAA also pointed out that far more damage can be done by one major hurricane hitting a heavily populated area than by several hurricanes hitting sparsely populated areas.

Last year, there were eight tropical cyclone landfalls in the U.S., including two separate strikes by Katrina as the storm crossed the Florida peninsula and then plowed into the central Gulf Coast. Four of these were major hurricanes at one of their landfalls: Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

“With the exception of the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, almost all the damage wrought by last year’s storms in the U.S. occurred along the Gulf Coast,” Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologist, said. “In recent history, it is the Gulf coast and the East Coast from the Carolinas southward that have borne the brunt of U.S. hurricane strikes. Because of this, people may be unaware that portions of the Northeast coast have been severely damaged by major hurricanes in the past, and that there is a dramatically increased likelihood that over the next five years the Northeast could be hit by a major hurricane.”

According to Bastardi, “Because it has been decades since the Northeast was hit by a major hurricane, some residents in the Northeast have become complacent regarding the threat of a
hurricane.” He said for just that reason, AccuWeather has “been warning of elevated danger from hurricanes in the Northeast since March, when we first identified that patterns that could lead to such an occurrence this year or in the near future.”

Reeves cautioned, “While the effects from last season will not be exactly repeated, there are many scenarios that could lead 2006 to be another costly season for the U.S.”

Topics Florida Catastrophe USA Hurricane