The California Earthquake Authority is collaborating with the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Science Foundation on a new earthquake damage risk model to update the current model developed by risk modeling company Eqecat. The $12 million dollar project — CEA is providing $1.75 million — started in Feb. 2005 and is expected to be completed in Sept. 2007. The CEA is also engaged in a pilot project to develop more information on how seismic events would affect a particular residential property.
The USGS estimates there is a 62 percent chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake in the great San Francisco Bay Area over the 30-year period from 2003 to 2032. The odds are about the same for Southern California.
Susan Hough, the Usage’s scientist-in-charge in Pasadena, Calif., said over the past 150 years, Southern California experienced one quake of 6.7 magnitude or more about every 50 years. In the Los Angeles region, the odds are one quake of that size will hit every 75 years, producing a 40 percent chance over 30 years.
USGS Spokeswoman Stephanie Hanna noted there are more than 300 known faults in the Los Angeles basin, as opposed to three major faults under the Bay Area. “Does that make either one more dangerous? Not necessarily,” she said. “It just adds to the level of uncertainty. No one, regardless of what some have boasted, has yet to come up with a prediction of what happens 1 mile, 6 miles, 15 miles, etc. below the earth’s crust. We can’t even seriously and definitely predict the weather, which is entirely within view.”
Topics California Catastrophe Natural Disasters Profit Loss Earthquake
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