The U.S. Climate Prediction Center, service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (http://www.noaa.gov), said Thursday the El Nino weather anomaly should continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere’s spring 2010, influencing global weather trends over the next several months.
In its monthly report, the weather center saidthat, while there was substantial disagreement over El Nino’s eventual peak strength, the abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean waters “is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months.”
For example, it said some areas will see increased rains while others, like Indonesia, should experience a continuation of drier-than-average weather.
The prediction center noted that El Nino strengthened from October to November, with sea surface temperature anomalies increasing across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and highly variable wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific.
“Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a moderate strength El Nino,” said CPC, which is the chief office in the NOAA tracking El Nino. The report’s predictive models varied, showing El Nino would either strengthen further or remain at moderate strength during the next few months.
“Most models indicate that the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Nino region will begin to decrease in early 2010, but the pattern will persist through March-April-May 2010,” it added.
El Nino, which means “little boy” in Spanish, is an abnormal warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters that can wreak havoc on weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. It was named in the 19th century after the Christ child when it was first observed around Christmas time by Latin American fishermen.
The weather pattern normally allows wind shear to disrupt storm formations in the Atlantic basin and helps drive storms away from land. From December to February, CPC said it expects El Nino to increase precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and to keep Indonesia’s drier-than-average weather in place.
Warming in the far eastern equatorial Pacific is also likely in coming months, with related increases in rainfall in parts of Peru and Ecuador.
In the United States, El Nino’s potential impact includes above-average precipitation in the South, with below-average rainfall in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across northern states, excluding New England, while below-average temperatures are likely for southeastern states, according to the report.
(Reporting by Carole Vaporean; Editing by John Picinich)
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