Guy Carpenter Launches Probabilistic Philippines Flood Model

Guy Carpenter & Co., the reinsurance broker and subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Cos., announced the launch of a new Philippines Flood Model. The probabilistic model provides countrywide coverage and enables insurers to assess flood exposure, one of the most frequently occurring natural hazards in the region.

The Philippines Flood Model is based on a 10,000-year stochastic catalogue simulating both fluvial (riverine) and pluvial (rainfall) flooding, including the impact of typhoon-induced precipitation. The fluvial component of the hazard was developed using leading-edge hydrological and hydraulic modeling to simulate river discharges across the river network in the country, said Guy Carpenter.

Pluvial flooding is simulated using an in-house methodology accounting for local climate conditions, soil type, land use and topography.

The enhanced model can produce event-loss tables, occurrence exceedance probability curves, and average annual losses at virtually any level of aggregation, said Carpenter, noting that the model is powered by the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, an open-source catastrophe modeling platform designed and built by the re/insurance industry.

Bengt Johnsen, head of South East Asia and Korea Region, Guy Carpenter, said: “The Philippines have a long history of devastating flood events, and the combined impacts of climate change and rapid urbanization are aggravating the problem. Our model provides clients with best-in-class capabilities to quantify flood risk and make informed business decisions, both for internal risk management purposes and for the placement of reinsurance.”

Flood modeling is one of the costliest but least quantified perils globally, commented Mark Weatherhead, head of Model Development, Guy Carpenter. “Our Philippines model is the latest in a series of flood modeling tools developed to expand our risk management capabilities in Asia Pacific.”

The model was developed by incorporating data from a number of public and private institutions, including JBA, Intermap and the European Space Agency. It features up-to-date flood defense information resulting from a comprehensive survey of current mitigation projects, including those sponsored by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA).

Source: Guy Carpenter

Photograph: People leave the flooded street with an inflatable boat after heavy rain in Manila, Philippines, on August 02, 2019. Photo by Lito Borras/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.

Topics Flood New Markets