Insured Losses from Winter Storm Ciarán Range From €800M to €1.3B: Verisk

Industry insured losses due to wind from Winter Storm Ciarán (also named Emir by the Free University of Berlin) will range between €800 million and €1.3 billion ($855.2 million and $1.4 billion), with the majority of the losses expected in France, according to the extreme event solutions business unit of Verisk, the global data analytics and technology provider,

Ciarán began as a shallow low that developed over the Ohio Valley in the U.S., on Sunday Oct. 29. On Wednesday Nov. 1, the storm explosively deepened by 34 millibars (mb) in 24 hours over warm sea surface temperatures, classifying Ciarán as a bomb cyclone, said Verisk, in a discussion of the meteorological track of Ciarán. (Editor’s note: The standard, or near-average, atmospheric pressure at sea level is 1013.25 millibars, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).

The low-pressure center of Ciarán arrived in south-western parts of England overnight into Thursday Nov. 2 at 952 mb, the lowest pressure ever recorded in England and Wales in November, Verisk said, noting, however, that high-exposure regions in the area were spared the worst impacts from the storm.

While rainfall in north-western Europe was less remarkable, there was flooding in parts of southern England, the company added.

The long trailing cold front from Ciarán spawned another shallow low over the Alps overnight Thursday into Friday, causing significant flooding in southern parts of Europe, most notably the Tuscany region of Italy, far away from the center of the storm, Verisk continued.

This flooding, along with the impacts in France and elsewhere from windstorm Domingos (which hit parts of Spain and France on Nov. 4 and Nov. 5), may contribute losses to this event, which, depending on hours clauses, could be considered a single loss occurrence along with Ciarán’s wind impacts.

Damage Impacts

Ciarán’s impacts were most pronounced in northwest France and the Channel Islands. In France, the worst damage was in the northwest, in Brest. Similar impacts were observed in the Channel Islands. Jersey in particular was very hard hit, with some of the more extreme roof and structural damage there likely caused by a strong tornado that was spawned by the storm. Jersey also saw golf ball-sized hail which contributed to both roof and automobile damage.

The large amount of tree-related damage from this storm was exacerbated by the fact that most trees in the region still have leaves on them and the ground was quite saturated, making it more likely for trees to become uprooted or fall over.

Verisk’s modeled insured loss estimates include insured physical damage from wind to property (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and motor, including structures and their contents, as well as business interruption and additional living expenses (for the UK only).

Verisk’s modeled insured loss estimates do not include:

• Losses due to coastal or inland flooding
• Losses due to tornadoes or hail
• Additional living expenses (ALE) for residential claims for all modeled countries, except the UK
• Losses to uninsured properties
• Losses to infrastructure
• Demand surge
• Losses caused by Storm Domingos, which affected France and Spain starting on Saturday, Nov. 4.

Source: Verisk

Photograph: A view of abandoned cars in flooded water after heavy rainfall, in Campi Bisenzio, Tuscany, Italy, on Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. Record-breaking rain caused floods in a vast swath of Tuscany as storm Ciarán pushed into Italy. (Adriano Conte/LaPresse via AP)

Topics Profit Loss Windstorm