The recent floods in southern Germany will cost insurers an estimated €1.568 billion (US$1.7 billion), according to PERILS, the independent Zurich-based organization that provides industry-wide catastrophe insurance data.
The floods, which hit southern Germany during the period of May 31 to June 6, 2024, were caused by an Atlantic low named “Orinoco”, which deviated from its usual west-east path to move in a south-easterly direction towards the northern Mediterranean, before tracking north-eastwards towards central Europe, PERILS explained.
The weather pattern resulted in prolonged, and in some areas extreme rainfall (up to 223mm, or 8.78 inches in three days) over southern Germany, PERILS said, noting that the rain fell on already saturated ground following Germany’s third wettest May since records began in 1881 (after 2007 and 2013).
Southern Germany Floods to Cost Insurers $2.6 Billion-$3.9 Billion: Verisk
As a result, many streams and rivers overflowed, leading to widespread flooding in the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg.
“It is striking that the three wettest Mays on record for Germany have occurred during the last 18 years. At the same time, the country’s average annual temperature has risen by 1.6 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times,” commented Luzi Hitz, product manager at PERILS, in a statement.
“Given that the air’s capacity to hold moisture rises with increasing temperatures, it is plausible that the warming climate will result in more precipitation in the form of prolonged periods of heavy rainfall, potentially leading to further floods similar to those experienced in southern Germany in early June,” he added.
While this first industry loss estimate of the floods is significant, PERILS said, it is not exceptional, as this figure has been exceeded on three other occasions since 2002: the Elbe floods of August 2002, summer floods of June 2013 and the Ahrtal Floods of July 2021.
PERILS said its estimate of the property insurance market loss is based on loss data collected from affected insurers.
An updated estimate of the market loss from the Southern Germany Floods will be made available on Sept. 6, 2024, three months after the event end date.
Source: PERILS
Photograph: The old town is flooded by the Danube in Passau, Germany, Tuesday June 4, 2024. (Armin Weigel/dpa via AP)
Related:
- Insured Flood Losses in Germany Could Range From US$2.1B to US$3.2B: Moody’s RMS
- Insurers Expect Major Loss Event From Floods in Southern Germany
Topics Profit Loss Flood Germany
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