Odds of Flooding Increase in Fargo

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North Dakota has an “incredible risk” of record spring flooding in Fargo, while major floods near Minot and Bismarck are possible from the winter’s heavy snowfall, National Weather Service analysts said.

“We have more than enough water on the ground to create flood conditions throughout the entire state of North Dakota,” said Allen Schlag, a weather service hydrologist in Bismarck. “I think that’s a very fair assessment.”

According to the weather service, the odds for major flooding in the southern Red River Valley have increased, with a 1-in-4 chance that the river will reach last year’s record levels in Fargo.

“We realize that’s a 75 percent of missing it,” meteorologist Greg Gust said during a briefing in Fargo. “But that still is an incredible risk that we are facing at this point.”

The weather service’s flood estimates are based on current moisture levels, frost, stream flows and weather forecasts compared to years with similar conditions, Gust said.

Spring snow, rain and temperatures ultimately will determine whether there is severe flooding, he said. Large amounts of moisture and temperatures that would encourage more rapid snow melting would make it more likely.

“Given the snow pack we have in place, we don’t really nearly have the wiggle room we had last year at this time,” Gust said.

Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker said city officials have been making flood preparations for the past few weeks. The spring thaw typically occurs from late March to mid-April.

“The potentials are there, but I’m not going to get worried until it actually happens,” Walaker said.

Greg Wilz, North Dakota’s emergency management director, and Maj. Gen. David Sprynczynatyk, commander of the North Dakota National Guard, said emergency responders and soldiers who took part in last spring’s flood-fighting efforts will be able to use that experience to improve their effectiveness.

“I am convinced that we are readier this year than we have been, ever,” Wilz said.

The weather service outlook shows that the Red River has a 96 percent chance of exceeding the major flood stage of 30 feet in Fargo, up from 86 percent in January’s outlook. There’s a 70 percent chance that the Red River in Fargo will go over 37 feet, which would lead to diking and sandbagging in some areas.

Flood stage for the Red in Fargo is 18 feet. The city saw a record crest of nearly 41 feet last yein 2009, when residents in the area stacked an estimated 6 million sandbags to hold back the river.

The moisture levels are especially high in southeast North Dakota, putting towns like Lisbon, Valley City and Harwood at risk, Gust said.

“We have too much water in the system, and it’s taking too long to get that water out of the system,” he said.

Conditions are more favorable in the northern half of the valley, although Park River and Grafton also could face major flooding, Gust said.

In Bismarck, Schlag said officials were particularly concerned about flooding along the Knife River near Beulah and Hazen, in west-central North Dakota; Beaver Creek near Linton, in the south-central part of the state; and Apple Creek, near Bismarck.

Flooding along the Souris River, in northwestern North Dakota, appears less likely than overland floods caused by the melting of moisture-laden snow, Schlag said.

“Minot is the bull’s eye of what we think to be the highest water content in the snow pack from the Souris River basin,” he said. “We would expect to see a lot more overland flooding, and small creeks, as opposed to Souris River problems.”

If March is “gentle,” with temperatures in the 30s and little rain or snow, spring flooding may be kept to a minimum, Schlag said. But North Dakota’s March weather is almost never that obliging, he said.

Soils are already saturated, and prairie potholes and sloughs that normally could be counted upon to absorb floodwaters are already brimming, officials said.

“Most of our ponds, our wetlands, our small impoundments, they’re all full of water,” Schlag said. “What’s on the ground, the vast majority of that (water) will run off.”