Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers have upped their hurricane season forecast. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is now expected for 2023, though there is a greater level of uncertainty than normal.
The CSU team now predicts 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes – those with a Saffir/Simpson category of 3-5 and sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. Long-term seasonal averages are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
A robust El Niño is still expected for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, with most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic at record warm sea surface temperatures.
El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, according to CSU, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.
“Large swaths of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are at record warm levels, favoring Atlantic hurricane activity. This anomalous warmth is why CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecast has increased, despite likely robust El Nino,” said CSU hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach on Twitter.
The updated forecast is an increase from the 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes CSU predicted on June 1.
The forecast includes an unnamed subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June.
Researchers indicate the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average.
An updated forecast will be issued on August 3rd.
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