AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that the Atlantic hurricane season could intensify in the coming weeks as less wind shear and less dry air create conducive conditions for storm development.
AccuWeather is forecasting six to 10 named storms to form in the Atlantic from Aug. 27 to Sept. 30. The historic average during that span is six named storms.
“We could see a parade of storms developing during the month of September,” said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at Accuweather. “There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms that we’ve seen during other supercharged hurricane seasons like 2020.”
Sept. 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, DaSilva said.
Hurricane development in the Atlantic basin has been limited for much of the summer as near-record levels of Saharan dust and dry air have surpassed formation of tropical storms. However, AccuWeather expects both inhibiting factors to ease in the final days of August.
Warm water, less Saharan dust and reduced wind shear will create ingredients for an active September.
“With extremely warm water temperatures, less disruptive wind shear, and less dry air, we could see a storm organizing every few days,” DaSilva said.
Warm waters and favorable conditions could even even extend the threat of tropical storms into November, DaSilva said.
While Florida and the Gulf Coast are always on alert this time of year, AccuWeather experts warn that storms are creating bigger impacts further inland with destructive winds and flooding.
Beryl spawned severe storms tornadoes across the Midwest and Northeast, while Debby caused widespread flooding in Florida and the Carolinas up through Pennsylvania and upstate New York.
Several regions along the East Coast could see an elevated risk for flash flooding if another tropical storm or hurricane develops in September, said AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jon Porter.
“The ground is saturated and additional rainfall can quickly runoff, resulting in renewed flooding concerns,” said Porter. “Any new tropical threats that bring heavy rainfall to the Carolinas, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast could quickly cause more flash flooding, which is a major concern in September.”
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