Climatologist Cautions Peach-State Residents to Be Prepared for Hurricanes

“The seasonal hurricane outlook should have no impact on hurricane plans,” David Stooksbury, the Georgia state climatologist cautioned the Governor’s Emergency Management Conference at the Savannah International Trade and Convention Center.

“We’re (eventually) going to have a rare event with a tremendous impact so we have to prepare the same every year,” Stooksbury told the Savannah Morning News. “The probability of us getting hit directly is relatively small, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.”

Stooksbury said Georgia’s only has 100 miles of exposed coastline, giving it less of a chance of a direct hit, unlike Florida, which has 10 times more coastline. But, he cautioned Peach-state residents not to rely on the shape of the Georgia coastline to protect them saying that’s a myth. Instead, the inward curve of the coast, combined with its wide continental shelf will increase storm surge when a hurricane does hit.

“I would not call that protection,” Stooksbury said. “The coastal geography makes the coast just south of Ossabaw the most prone to storm surge of any place on the East Coast.”

Georgians also find false comfort with history, Stooksbury said. No major hurricane–that’s a hurricane of Category 3 or above on the 5-point Saffir-Simpson scale–has hit Georgia in the last century. But the 1800s were a different story.

Al Sandrik, National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist in Jacksonville, Fla. reconstructs hurricanes scenarios based on letters, diaries and newspaper accounts from the time. He estimates seven or eight major hurricanes hit Georgia that century killing thousands of people on a coast that was far less developed than it is now.

“Think about the coastline now and how they’re building into the marshlands like they never did before,” Sandrik said.
In terms of the number and severity of storms, last year was not unusual, according to Stooksbury. “What makes 2004 special?” he said. “Ask Florida.”

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Georgia Hurricane