Experts Don’t Think Record Fla. June Rainfall Will Reduce Hurricane Risk

Florida statistics show Florida received a lot of rain in June, much more than average, but Jim Lushine, a 42-year National Weather Service veteran, says his theory, that a wet May means fewer hurricanes for South Florida, has absolutely nothing to do with how much it rains in June—and emphasized his theory ONLY applies to South Florida.

Statistics indicate Florida received 58 percent more rain in June than average and has received 62 percent more rain during the first six months of the year.

Florida residents hoped the statistics would result in predictions of fewer hurricanes this season. Lushine, however, dashed such hopes when he told the Daytona Beach News-Journal that his theory is specifically based on South Florida’s risk—not Central Florida’s risk—and only applies to May’s rain, not June’s rain.

Florida meteorologists tallied the amount of rain received in Florida in June, and agree that while the state had a “lot” of rain during the month; it wasn’t a record and probably won’t have any effect on the hurricane season.

The experts maintain that the chief air current, responsible for steering hurricanes has been weak, like last year, when Florida was hit by four hurricanes. They told the News-Journal, “It’s too early to tell what the weather pattern will be at the peak of hurricane season in late summer and early fall.”

They say it doesn’t matter at all that Florida got more than twice the normal rainfall in June.

It’s hard to pin down one reason why Florida got so much rain in June, Matt Bragaw, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Melbourne told the News-Journal. He said it’s likely the rain was influenced by air currents in the Atlantic Ocean that create a weather pattern called the North Atlantic oscillation.

Experts believe the currents may influence hurricane activity cycles. The currents also influence the Bermuda High, a ridge of high pressure that fluctuates in size and strength across the Atlantic Ocean and southeastern United States in the summer and fall, he said.

At times the high-pressure ridge is suppressed and pushed up into the Central Atlantic, leaving Florida vulnerable to nasty weather.
That’s one of the reasons why rain has been lingering over Florida for weeks, Bragaw said. The ridge allowed a strong southerly flow of wind that opened the state up to more tropical air.

At other times, the ridge is strong. If it’s strong and stretched out across the Southeastern United States during hurricane season, it tends to force hurricanes to curve north and away from Florida.
And so far, given how weak the ridge was in June, forecasters said they’re not optimistic.

“We haven’t seen anything to indicate things are not going to be very active,” said Mike Halpert, the head of forecast operations for the Climate Prediction Center. The Washington, D.C., center is a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Conditions still favor an active season, Halpert said.

“Ocean temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic are still very warm, significantly warmer than normal,” he said. “And, there’s no sign of any type of El Nino developing which would help to squash the storms.”