Catastrophe modeling firm Risk Management Solutions (RMS) issued the following update on Tropical Storm Debby this morning, Tuesday, June 26:
Over the last 24 hours, Tropical Storm Debby (located over the northeast Gulf of Mexico) has slowly moved towards the Florida coast, bringing tropical storm winds to a large part of western Florida, including the panhandle and extending into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia. This region has also been subject to extremely heavy rain – in particular northern Florida.
The National Weather Service has flash flood warnings in place across this area. It is estimated that over 35,000 properties are without power as a result of damage to poles and power lines.
A state of emergency has been declared in Florida in association with Debby.
As of early Tuesday, Tropical Storm Debby was located approximately 90 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph – which have weakened around 15 mph in the last 24 hours. Debby is a large storm with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 240 miles – which has increased by 40 miles in radius over the last 24 hours.
There is still considerable uncertainty in the track and intensity guidance associated with Debby. Over the last 24 hours the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track for Debby has shifted to the east, with the current forecast calling for a landfall over a sparsely populated region of Taylor county, Florida, late Wednesday, or early Thursday. Most operational track guidance is calling for a landfall over western Florida (between Tallahassee and Tampa), though the exact location and timing of landfall varies.
Little change in strength in the system is expected by the NHC as the center moves closer to land, and there is consensus among the models that Debby will not reach hurricane status over the next 48 to 72 hours status (i.e. before the NHC forecast Florida landfall).
Over the extended forecast the NHC is calling for Debby to track west-northwest over northern Florida weakening to a depression, before a re-emergence over the Atlantic in the early part of the coming weekend and re-strengthening to a tropical storm. There is however considerable uncertainty associated with the extended forecast.
“While the storm is forecast to remain over sea surface temperatures of around 27C-28C, dry level mid-air and southwesterly wind shear is likely to inhibit significant development,” said Neena Saith, director of catastrophe response at RMS. “Currently, Debby’s greatest hazard, especially since she is slow moving, is rainfall to regions that have already been impacted and have saturated soil.”
Additional risks associated with Debby are; tropical storm strength winds that will continue to affect portions of the northeast Gulf Coast over the next few days, coastal flooding related to storm surge (a 3 to 5 ft storm surge is forecast for the region from Apalachee Bay to Waccasassa Bay and a 1 to 3 ft storm surge for the west coast of Florida south of Waccasassa Bay), flooding as a result of heavy rainfall and the risk of isolated tornadoes across the Florida Peninsula.
Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are forecast over northern Florida and 3 to 8 inches over central and southern Florida over the next few days – this could see the storm total accumulation reach 25 inches in places in northern Florida. Preliminary 72 hour accumulations to 06:00UTC on Tuesday, 26 June include 9.9 inches in Tampa, 10.3 inches in St Petersburg, 10 inches in Woodville.
Source: RMS
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