According to catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide, as of 8 a.m. today, Tropical Storm Debby was still a weak tropical storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, but it was drenching northern Florida and parts of southeastern Georgia with intense rainfall.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the storm is situated about 120 miles northwest of Clearwater, Florida, and is moving slowly eastward towards Florida’s west coast at a rate of about 3 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour and a minimum central pressure of 991 millibars.
The NHC’s most likely track shows Debby continuing to move east or east-northeast and make landfall as a tropical storm late tomorrow, June 27, along the coast of northwestern Florida. After landfall, Debby is expected to weaken fairly quickly to a tropical depression.
“Currently over 20 inches of rain has fallen in the past 48 hours in Wakulla County, Florida, with one weather station reporting 12.99 inches in just 12 hours,” said Dr. Tim Doggett, principal scientist at AIR Worldwide. “Debby’s rainfall footprint currently extends from Pensacola, Florida, into Georgia, near Valdosta, and south and east to Lake City, Florida. Some flooding is also occurring along normally dry areas near the coast, around Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast due to a minor storm surge and tidal effects, which may bring the water depth to 4 feet at Apalachee Bay.”
Doggett said Debby is slowly weakening due to dry air and high wind shear, which is inhibiting the storm from becoming more organized. “The storm’s windfield is also partially over land, which will cause further dissipation,” he said.
The NHC does warn of possible tornadoes occurring today across the Florida Peninsula and an additional 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected in Wakulla County.
As the NHC does not expect Debby to increase to hurricane strength, the greatest threat to property is from flooding due to the intense rainfall from this storm, according to AIR.
Street flooding continues to worsen in areas, causing accidents and some large sinkholes with a few homes in Marion County being evacuated. Winds have caused some roof damage and downed power lines as well as damage to signage and awnings.
The forecast says Debby is very likely to cross Florida and emerge into the Atlantic, where some reintensification may occur as the storm enters the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
“Debby may regain Tropical Storm intensity by the end of the week,” Doggett said.
Source: AIR-Worldwide
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