Damage Predictions Mount as Helene Strengthens: Atlanta in Its Path

As Hurricane Helene gains strength in the unusually warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, forecasters, claims adjusting firms and analytics experts are warning that the storm could be more damaging than other recent storms that hit the same area.

Helene, a Category 1 storm Thursday morning, could strengthen by landfall Thursday evening. Even if the worst of it misses the sprawling Tampa area in Florida, the system is expected to take dead aim at Atlanta, where millions of people and properties could be affected by Friday.

CoreLogic, a property analytics company, said about 25,000 residential properties with a rebuild value of $5.6 billion are now at risk from storm surge and flooding. AccuWeather said Helene could soon become a Category 4 storm. That means the storm is likely to be more damaging than Category 3 Hurricane Idalia, which hit the same region of Florida in 2023, causing more than $2.2 billion in insured losses, Karen Clark & Co. estimated last year.

Hurricane Debby, which made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida last month, caused an estimated $1.4 billion in privately insured losses, KCC said.

Other estimates for Helene suggest losses could be greater. Moody’s, an analytics and ratings firm, warned Thursday morning that almost 162,000 commercial properties lie in the path of the storm. That includes multifamily residential buildings, offices, industrial sites, hotels and retail shops.

Gallagher Re, the global reinsurance brokerage, said that private insured losses could be from $3 billion to $6 billion — higher if Helene strikes a major metropolitan area such as Tampa, according to public radio and the News Service of Florida reports.

Altogether, damages and losses will likely reach about $15 billion, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. That’s actually a bit less from an earlier estimate of $20 billion, based on the assumption that Helene doesn’t hold onto its most powerful winds for as long after it comes ashore, Bloomberg news service reported.

Meanwhile, almost every courthouse and most schools in Florida were closed Thursday ahead of the hurricane, which grew to more than 345 miles in width, according to news reports.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a news briefing that Florida’s long-stressed property insurance industry is improving and should be able to manage the losses.

The worst impact wrought by Helene will likely be flooding, which could lessen the cost for property insurance companies that do not cover flood damage. As much as 8 inches of rain has already fallen across parts of the Appalachian mountains in advance of Helene and another 12 or more could fall as the storm heads north, Bloomberg noted.

Photo: Paulette and Ben McLin outside their summer home on Alligator Point, Florida, on Wednesday. Their family has owned the home since it was built in 1963, and she is concerned this particular storm may impact them more severely than previous storms. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

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