Modeler KCC Puts Privately Insured Losses at $6.4B From Helene

Karen Clark & Co., the well-regarded storm modeling and analytics firm, estimates that privately insured losses from Hurricane Helene will be about $6.4 billion – from wind, storm surge and inland flooding in nine states.

The figure includes residential, commercial and industrial properties and automobile losses, but does not include boats or National Flood Insurance Program claims, the company said in a statement Wednesday.

“In contrast to a typical Category 4 hurricane, most of the damage occurred far from the landfall point, with higher wind damage in Georgia than Florida, more surge damage in Tampa, and the most significant inland flood damage in North Carolina,” the firm noted.

The estimate is slightly higher than A.M. Best’s prediction of about $5 billion, released just after Helene churned across the region, and Gallagher Re’s upper range of $6 billion for privately insured losses.

It’s also about three times more damage than Karen Clark & Co. (KCC) estimated after Hurricane Idalia followed a similar path one year ago. Helene, which made landfall on Sept. 26, packed sustained winds of 140 mph, compared with Idalia’s 125-mph winds.

Helene also dumped a record-setting 20 inches of rain in parts of western North Carolina, leading to catastrophic flooding in Asheville and other areas. In Asheville, the previous record for the water level of the French Broad River was 23.1 feet, set during the Great Flood of 1916, KCC noted. This record was exceeded by about 1.5 feet on Sept. 27 due to the rains from Helene. In fact, more than a foot or rain fell in portions of of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Virginia.

In storm-weary Florida, Helene jogged slightly east of Tallahassee, keeping some of its strongest winds away from a densely populated area.

“…The strongest winds were felt mainly in the sparsely populated area between Lake City and Tallahassee. Losses would have been higher with a direct hit on Tallahassee, but the strongest winds remained well east of the city, leading to low losses in the area,” Karen Clark & Co. said in the report.

Property damage from coastal flooding was concentrated around Tampa Bay, particularly in Clearwater and St. Petersburg, even though the peak storm surge heights were observed at locations north of Cedar Key.

The storm surge from Helene broke records along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast—some of which were set just a year ago, when Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the Big Bend as a Category 3 hurricane. Helene is now the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Big Bend. Cedar Key received 10.3 feet of storm surge from Helene, shattering the previous record of 6.9 feet set during Idalia.

Private flood insurance claims from Helene in Florida, as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, had topped 2,300 – five times the number seen in Hurricane Idalia.

Photo: Cindy White looks over the devastation inside her home in Morganton, North Carolina. The adjacent Catawba River flooded due to the torrential rains. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)

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