Another Analysis Calls out Potential for Severe Wildfire Season in U.S. West

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As the U.S. West heads into the hot, dry summer months, a growing number of indications point to a potentially bad wildfire season.

In the past two months, two analyses have emerged from fire weather experts using words like “intense,” and comparing expectations for this season to grim realities from recent record-breaking seasons.

Zesty.ai, a startup that provides insurers artificial intelligence to help measure wildfire risk at the individual property level, on Thursday issued its 2022 Wildfire Season Overview.

“The year ahead looks to be similarly destructive to 2020 and 2021, which were among the most destructive on record,” the overview states.

The analysis blames climate change for expanding the historical wildfire season from a four-month period to a year-round occurrence, and it blames drought as one of the primary drivers of the increased risk.

The forecast for the West is bad, but Zesty’s outlook for California is worse. In 2021 in California saw 2.5 million acres burned and 3,629 structures were damaged or destroyed, and in 2020 there were 4.3 million acres burned and 11,116 structures destroyed, making both years among the worst years on record.

“Unfortunately, this year looks to be on track to be similar to the last two years, during which Californians experienced record-breaking wildfires and billions of dollars in property loss,” the analysis states. “Current drought patterns in the state show that there is nearly the same level of drought, with fewer sections of extreme or exceptional drought, as the same week last year.”

An analysis from AccuWeather forecasters in May also calls for another severe wildfire season in the Western U.S.

The West is undergoing an “aridification,” a gradual drying out, from the ongoing multi-decadal drought, while the impacts from climate change are expected continue to heighten the wildfire threat in years to come, according to that report.

The “mega-drought” throughout the Southwestern U.S. is considered the region’s worst in 1,200 years, according to a study in the journal Nature Climate Change, which forecasts the mega-drought is likely to persist through 2022, matching the duration of the a late-1500s mega-drought.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows “widespread severe to exceptional drought persists throughout much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and California, while the Pacific Northwest may see a later wildfire season thanks to a low-pressure system brining in late season moisture.

The beneficial conditions in the Pacific Northwest help offset the growing concerns in the West and Southwest, where the massive wildfire in New Mexico has helped the season get off to an early and fast start, according to Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist and lead U.S. long range forecaster at AccuWeather.

But he wasn’t optimistic on the whole about the fire season ahead.

“We’re off to a fast start,” Pastelok said. “We’re ahead by a million acres over the 10-year average.”

AccuWeather’s forecast in May indicated the 2022 fire season could yield 68,000 to 72,000 fires across the nation, burning 8.1 to 8.3 million acres. The national average from 2001 to 2020 was 68,707 fires burning 7 million acres, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

Like the Zesty outlook, the AccuWeather forecast also paints a potentially bleak picture for California.

Pastelok said the state’s continued drought status has done nothing but make the outlook for the state worse in the past month.

“California as a whole, it looks serious,” he said.

Those conditions are not just potentially serious, the resulting fires may a soon as a month away.

Pastelok expects that by July, California may start to see some fires in spots, with peak fire season in late August early fall.

“It’s all setting up to be a pretty bad season,” he said.