Why New York and New Jersey Are at Risk of Spring Wildfires

The wildfire scorching southern New Jersey ignited despite a series of downpours in recent weeks — and the region is ripe for more blazes.

April’s rains didn’t soak into the ground enough to prevent the fire from erupting at the edge of New Jersey’s pine barrens reserve. The blaze — which was allegedly sparked by an improperly extinguished bonfire — has burned 21 square miles (54 square kilometers) and is expected to grow in the coming days.

While a round of showers is in the forecast for this weekend, climate scientists say relatively parched and windy conditions are putting the New York metro area at risk of more fires.

“Traditionally, spring is fire season” for the area, said New Jersey state climatologist David Robinson. “In the summer, you’ve got more shade from the trees and higher levels of humidity. This spring, it’s been windy, the air has been dry and we haven’t had rain in days.”

When rains have arrived this spring, they’ve tended to be brief and too intense be absorbed deep into the soil, said Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts. Instead, they largely run off into rivers and streams, filling the region’s reservoirs.

That’s partly due to the influence of human-caused climate change, Francis said, which can prompt weather systems to shift off course and sometimes stall in one place. After weeks of dryness, the region can suddenly transition to rainier conditions.

Without dampness in the soil, the ground will heat up quickly under bright and direct spring sunlight. “That reinforces the dryness and heat in the region that created fire danger in the first place,” Francis said. “It’s kind of a vicious cycle.”

Looking ahead, climate change is likely to cause the Northeast to swing between increasingly intense periods of dryness followed by deluges, according to Francis.

“It’s going to be much more of a smorgasbord of weird weather,” she said.