The UK’s Weather Service, The Met Office Hadley Centre, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, is forecasting average global temperature increases of 0.54°C (0.972°F) above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C (57.2°F) for 2007.
“There is a 60 percent probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was +0.52 °C [0.936°F] above the long-term average),” said the Met’s bulletin.
“The potential for a record 2007 arises partly from a moderate-strength El Niño already established in the Pacific, which is expected to persist through the first few months of 2007,” it continued. “The lag between El Niño and the full global surface temperature response means that the warming effect of El Niño is extended and therefore has a greater influence the global temperatures during the year.
Katie Hopkins from Met Office Consulting commented: “This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world. Our work in the climate change consultancy team applies Met Office research to help businesses mitigate against risk and adapt at a strategic level for success in the new environment.”
The new forecast follows an already very warm year. Although summer temperatures across Europe and much of the world didn’t break records, the warm weather persisted long into the fall months.
2006 was the warmest year on record across the UK. Bears in Russia continued to roam the woods searching for food, long after they would have normally gone into hibernation. Skiers in the Alps searched in vain for snow, while beach resorts continued to do a brisk business in November and December.
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