Study Blames Climate Change for Summer Wildfire Rise in California

A study out this week shows that nearly all of the observed increase in summer wildfires in California over the past half-century is attributable to man-made climate change.

An international team of scientists looked at data from record-breaking summer forest fires in California that show a fivefold increase in summer burned area in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995.

Higher temperature and increased dryness were already believed to be the leading causes of the wildfire increase, but the extent to which that increase was due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change was unknown.

The scientists developed a climate-driven model of changes in summer wildfires in California and combined it with natural-only and historical climate simulations.

“We estimate that from 1971 to 2021, anthropogenic climate change contributed to a +172% increase in (burned area), with a remarkable +320% increase from 1996 to 2021,” the authors write.

In the next decades, a further increase in average annual forest burned area is expected in thee range of 3% to 52% relative to the mean over the past two decades, “highlighting the need for proactive adaptations to limit negative impacts of fire to ecosystems and society,” the authors write.

It’s clear that insurers are eyeing the increase in wildfires in the nation’s most populous state. A new report from Gallagher Re shows the threat of damaging wildfires in conjunction with inflation and pricing challenges has led to a distressed insurance and reinsurance market, particularly in California.

Swiss Re

Swiss Re’s latest SONAR report, which identifies the emerging risks property/casualty insurers need to understand and prepare for “in a tumultuous global environment filled with potential pitfalls,” includes the dangers of climate change.

Climate change is driving the “Arctic opening,” giving rise to new shipping and trade routes, leading to massive potential for economic and strategic growth of the region. Also growing is the potential for environmental exposure and geopolitical frictions, the report asserts.

New short-cut shipping routes and opportunities for tourism, and new areas for mining, oil and gas drilling, and fishing, are opening up.

“All told, the Arctic opening also comes with many challenges and uncertainties,” the report states. “For example, the economic competitiveness of arctic routes over traditional shipping routes is not certain. And, with the rise of sustainability commitments and regulations, the value of mining and fossil fuel development in the region is also questionable.”

According to the report, the risk profile of many activities in the region will change as temperatures continue to rise. The effects include sea-level rise, which threatens settlements and industrial installations, while toxic waste deposited in past decades from military, mining and other activities could be uncovered and dispersed, leading to environmental pollution.

Lastly, melting ice and thawing permafrost could result in release of infectious pathogens, new sources of potential epidemics and pandemics, the report notes.

Delta

A greenwashing lawsuit against Delta Airlines aims to set a precedent.

Delta debuted a climate pledge in 2020, alongside a plan to spend $1 billion over the next decade mitigating its greenhouse-gas emissions. Now that pledge is the focal point of a class-action lawsuit arguing that Delta’s carbon-neutrality claims amount to little more than greenwashing, Bloomberg reported in an article this week on Insurance Journal.

The lawsuit was filed on May 30 on behalf of any California resident who has flown on Delt since March 2020.

“Delta’s representations of carbon neutrality are provably false and misleading,” reads the lawsuit.

Delta says the lawsuit lacks legal merit.

The lawsuit against Delta claims the airline overstated or miscalculated the benefits of the projects it supports in its goal to reach carbon neutrality, to offset carbon emissions by funding projects that either absorb CO2 or prevent carbon.

The suit comes amid a broader backlash against greenwashing, including from regulators. In the U.K., the Advertising Standards Authority has banned ads from Lufthansa, HSBC and Shell, among others for touting their sustainability initiatives without mentioning the polluting parts of their business, Bloomberg reported.

Massachusetts Green Bank

Massachusetts is launching what is believed to be the nation’s “first green bank dedicated to affordable housing.”

The green bank is an effort to address two of the state’s top challenges: grappling with climate change and easing a tough housing market, the Associated Press reported.

The stated goal of the $50 million Massachusetts Community Climate Bank is to increase investments that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector, largely focused on affordable and public housing developments, according to the AP.

“Other states have started climate banks. Ours, though, is the country’s first climate bank that is dedicated to housing — affordable housing in particular. That is the primary focus,” Gov. Maura Healey said at a press conference. “We’re centering environmental justice for folks hit hardest by the climate impacts and high energy costs.”

Buildings in Massachusetts account for more than 25% of greenhouse gas emissions — a number that rises to about 70% in the state’s larger, densely-populated cities, Healey said.

The fund’s goal is to help “decarbonize” buildings using a number of strategies, according to the AP.

Past columns:

• Climate Change, Wildfire Risk and State Farm’s California Decision
• 23 State Attorney Generals Concerned About Insurer Climate Commitments
• Insurer Group Concerned Over FIO Climate-Related Data Collection Effort
• Pew: 7-in-10 Americans Favor Steps to Become Carbon Neutral by 2050
• Activist Group Calling for Immediate Halt to Insuring Fossil Fuels

Topics California Catastrophe Natural Disasters Wildfire Massachusetts Climate Change