Could This Hurricane Season Break 21-Storm Record?

The United States has already experienced seven named storms in less than six weeks, at this rate, 22 systems would form by Nov. 30, which would break the 21-storm record established in 1933.

According to the National Hurricane Center, at this pace it’s list of names would be exhausted before the end of the hurricane season. Colin McAdie, a NHC research meteorologist, the list only goes to W, Wilma, this year, and does not include names that begin with Q, U, X, Y or Z.

“Some of the letters are very difficult to use because of the scarcity of names that begin with those letters,” McAdie told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “If 22 or more storms form this year, the center would name systems under the Greek alphabet, such as Tropical Storm Alpha, Beta, etc.”

Still, the fact forecasters have discussed the possibility is an indication of how chaotic this season already has been, and four months remain, including the meanest stretch from mid-August through September, when the most powerful storms occur.

A primary reason this year has been so active: A natural cycle of warm water shifting to the tropical region where hurricanes grow.

If even 15 storms form this year, as they did last season, it still would be a rare event. In the past 75 years, only seven seasons have seen 15 or more significant tropical systems — 1933, 1936, 1969, 1995, 2000, 2003 and 2004.

This season has seen the most named storms in July. It is also the earliest that the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh systems have formed, according to hurricane records dating back to 1851.

In addition, hurricanes Dennis and Emily exhibited unprecedented intensity for so early in the season. The only other year in which two intense hurricanes formed in July was 1916.

Forecasters say a high number of storms doesn’t necessarily mean a season will be intense. Overall intensity is calculated on the total number of storms, how long each lasts and how strong each gets.

In those terms, this season’s intensity is projected to be 120 percent to 190 percent of normal. A normal season has 10 tropical storms, including six hurricanes, two intense.

The most intense year ever: 1950, which was 278 percent of normal. It saw 11 hurricanes, 8 of them major, with two of those slamming South Florida, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

One caveat: If 22 or more storms emerge this year, it might not be a record — because it’s possible many seasons prior to 1965 were even busier.

That was the year when satellites first monitored the entire Earth, and all prior records are somewhat suspect, said Chris Landsea, a research meteorologist with NOAA’s hurricane research division.

For instance, this year’s Tropical Storm Bret, which existed for one day in late June in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, likely would have been missed more than 40 years ago, he said.

“We’ve only got 40 years of accurate data,” he said. “Before the satellite era, you may have had storms that were short-lived that didn’t impact land and didn’t get into the database.”

Topics Catastrophe Natural Disasters Windstorm Hurricane